In August 2025, two right-wing candidates polled top of Bolivia\u2019s national elections. They will head to a runoff on October 19. Whichever wins, the result marks a crushing defeat of the incumbent Movement towards Socialism (MAS) after two decades in power.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The country\u2019s major left party has been left with just one seat<\/a> in the national legislature, ending its control of Congress and the presidency. On election night, crowds in the country\u2019s political capital, La Paz chanted: \u2018El MAS nunca m\u00e1s<\/em>\u2019 (\u2018MAS, never again!).<\/p>\n\n\n\n In Bolivia, the twenty-first century has been defined by MAS and Evo Morales, a former coca growers\u2019 union leader and first Indigenous president of a country with an estimated two-thirds Indigenous population<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n After ascending to power in 2006, Morales and his party made important advances on everything from everyday racism to social programs \u2013 in sharp contrast to previous neoliberal administrations. But in recent years MAS \u2013 and Morales\u2019s legacy \u2013 have been tarnished by infighting<\/a> and an economic crisis<\/a>, which ultimately culminated in dramatic election losses. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Former President Morales was prevented from running for what would have been an unconstitutional fourth term by the national courts. In response, he urged his supporters to spoil their ballots. <\/p>\n\n\n\n With voting mandatory in Bolivia, null and blank ballots have long been used as a form of resistance<\/a> against traditional party politics. In August, approximately 19 per cent<\/a> of all ballots were marked null \u2013 nearly six times above average.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Not all of the spoiled ballots translate into support for Morales<\/a>. Nonetheless, the longest-serving president in Bolivia\u2019s history triumphantly told the coca growers\u2019 radio station<\/a>: \u2018we\u2019re in first place\u2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The spoiled ballots nixed any possibility for Morales\u2019s erstwhile political heir, 36-year-old MAS Senate President Andr\u00f3nico Rodr\u00edguez, who ran on an independent left ticket but won only 8.4 per cent<\/a> of the vote. The official MAS candidate, chosen after incumbent President Luis Arce decided not to run<\/a> for reelection, was former Interior Minister Eduardo del Castillo. He garnered just barely enough votes to maintain<\/a> the party\u2019s legal standing. <\/p>\n\n\n\n This splintering of MAS<\/a> reflected mud-slinging and divisions<\/a> that have spread within the party over the past five years. They began when Morales\u2019s former Finance Minister<\/a> Arce won the Presidency decisively<\/a>, a year after Morales was removed from office<\/a> after trying to run unconstitutionally<\/a> for a fourth term. Morales immediately plotted his return, seeing Arce as a temporary proxy<\/a> \u2013 and almost immediately creating a power struggle when Arce\u2019s administration asserted its autonomy. As \u00d3scar Paco, a former Morales supporter, argued: \u2018Evo already had his moment, he should make space for young people\u2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Another major element in the MAS defeat stems from Bolivia\u2019s economic woes. After 2013, once global commodity prices<\/a> fell and natural gas reserves declined, state revenues moved onto shaky ground. The potential cutting of fuel subsidies \u2013 which largely benefit agribusiness and illegal mining activities but have driven people worried about rising<\/a> transport costs into the streets \u2013 exacerbated tensions. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Meanwhile, Bolivia\u2019s currency has steadily weakened<\/a>, with the black-market US dollar exchange rate now about double the official one. As the economy tanked \u2013 with bread size decreasing even as prices rose<\/a> \u2013 memories of the MAS party’s accomplishments faded from view. <\/p>\n\n\n\n In office, the party originally built by Bolivia\u2019s formidable social movements achieved astounding improvements<\/a> for Indigenous and poor people. Poverty was reduced by half<\/a> and natural gas deals were audaciously re-negotiated with powerful multinationals, with the increased funds used to extend rural infrastructure. Almost every corner of Bolivia had a new school, road, or health clinic. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The acceleration of extractivism means that Bolivia now\u00a0ranks second only to Brazil\u00a0\u2013 a country eight times its size \u2013 in tropical primary forest loss<\/p>\n\n\n\n Government programs that enabled the middle class to grow by about ten per cent rested on continuing an economic model in place since the Spanish invaded, based on extracting raw materials. Repeated cycles of boom and bust led MAS it to deplete the country\u2019s reserves in an effort to prop up political support. The acceleration of extractivism means that Bolivia now ranks second only to Brazil<\/a> \u2013 a country eight times its size \u2013 in tropical primary forest loss due largely to growing soy farms and cattle ranching in the east. <\/p>\n\n\n\n In the process, power centered increasingly around the charismatic Morales, rather than in the country\u2019s grassroots movements. \u2018MAS increasingly ignored the movements and ideals that put it in power and only cared about re-election,\u2019 explains political analyst<\/a> Jos\u00e9 de la Fuente, who worked for a MAS-controlled regional government. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Corruption scandals meanwhile and repeatedly shook the MAS party. One of the most egregious under Morales diverted funds<\/a> destined for Indigenous development projects; another involving exceptions to agroindustry laws<\/a> for the President\u2019s son directly tainted Arce\u2019s administration. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Over the past two decades, the MAS government also made strides against the country\u2019s deep-seated and divisive racism. \u2018We don\u2019t want to go back to the racism of the past\u2019 has been a popular refrain among those frightened by the return of the right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n While yet to formally gain power, court rulings have already begun<\/a> to favour key rightwing figures<\/a> who led the 2019 coup against MAS, and subsequent massacres. A judge has annulled charges<\/a> against former interim president Jeanine \u00c1\u00f1ez and required her case be retried. Former Santa Cruz Governor Fernando Camacho<\/a> was moved to house arrest and Marco Antonio Pumari, another central figure in the 2019 coup<\/a>, has been released from preventive detention. <\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2018These politicized court decisions will inevitably pave the way for more political violence like the massacres \u00c1\u00f1ez oversaw\u2019, says human rights attorney Thomas Becker, who consults with the families of 2019 massacre victims.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Indigenous voters worry that a return to right-wing rule will trigger a racist backlash<\/a> not seen since 2019. Far-right candidate Jorge \u2018Tuto\u2019 Quiroga<\/a> \u2018is very racist\u2019, says M\u00e1xima Laura, a street vendor in traditional Aymara dress and former MAS voter. \u2018If he wins he won\u2019t so much as look at us Indigenous women.\u2019<\/p>\n\n\n\n Yet amid the crisis and destruction of MAS, one of its successes is striking. In a nation with one of the world\u2019s highest number of coup d\u2019etats<\/a>, President Luis Arce appears fully committed<\/a> to a democratic transition, even though it comes at the cost of disassembling his own political party and many of its accomplishments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Despite MAS\u2019s complete rout, there is little doubt that Bolivia\u2019s social movements \u2013 long resilient against colonial powers, military dictatorships, and neoliberal governments \u2013 will rise again<\/a>, to press for a more just and equitable society. It may take time, but if history serves as a guide, it is all but inevitable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n A longer version of this article first appeared in the North American Congress on Latin America in <\/em>English<\/em><\/a> and <\/em>Spanish<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Infighting over centralised power, corruption and economic crisis has led to defeat for a once-inspiring Indigenous leader and social movement party. Linda Farthing and Benjamin Swift report<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":33,"featured_media":46449,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2269,145,2529],"tags":[3133,3132],"class_list":["post-46447","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-democracy","category-latin-america","category-socialism","tag-benjamin-swift","tag-linda-farthing"],"yoast_head":"\nSpoiled ballots \u2013\u00a0or protest vote?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Economic failings and centralised power<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Fears of a racist backlash<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n