{"id":42086,"date":"2024-01-07T08:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-01-07T08:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redpepper.org.uk\/?p=42086"},"modified":"2024-01-06T17:09:01","modified_gmt":"2024-01-06T17:09:01","slug":"after-months-of-protests-democracy-prevails-in-guatemala","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redpepper.org.uk\/global-politics\/latin-america\/after-months-of-protests-democracy-prevails-in-guatemala\/","title":{"rendered":"After months of protests, will democracy prevail in Guatemala?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\u2018Do you think I\u2019ll be able to take a collectivo<\/em> to Guatemala City tomorrow?\u2019 I ask Esau Rosa, a humanitarian worker from San Salvador. Rosa shrugs his shoulders and pulls out his phone. \u2018A friend from the frontera<\/em>,\u2019 he clarifies after a brief, hurried conversation. The highways were still being blocked, his friend had said, leaving hordes of chicken busses stranded at the border. If I wanted to go to Guatemala, I would have to fly.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It was mid-October, 2023. Protests<\/a> in the country had just entered their third week, prompted by Attorney General Mar\u00eda Consuelo Porras\u2019 attempts to invalidate<\/a> the election of presidential candidate Bernardo Ar\u00e9valo. Set to assume office on 14 January, Ar\u00e9valo\u2019s anti-corruption campaign poses a significant threat to the establishment that Porras represents<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the unprecedented coalition of Indigenous leaders, student associations, and human rights institutions that rose up in October have been fighting for more than Ar\u00e9valo, or the removal of Porras. They are, as Guatemalan organiser Chris Krings tells me, fighting to \u2018defend democracy, and to prevent Guatemala from falling into authoritarianism as other Latin American countries have.\u2019<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The crowds gathered outside of Guatemala City\u2019s interior ministry reminded me of what I had seen a year earlier in Lima, Peru. There, a similarly diverse group of citizens came together to demand the removal<\/a> of Dina Boularte, the unelected replacement for, and former vice president of Pedro Castillo. Both situations boil down to the same problem: a conservative government that disrespects its citizens\u2019 right to vote.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ar\u00e9valo, like Castillo, won over votes with his promise to \u2018drain the swamp\u2019 \u2013 to cleanse Guatemalan politics of the clientelism that keeps much of the country impoverished and underdeveloped. Whether he will be able to honour this promise remains to be seen. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

On 3 November, Guatemala\u2019s Supreme Electoral Court suspended<\/a> Ar\u00e9valo\u2019s party \u2013 Moviemento Semilla or Seed Movement \u2013 over alleged \u2018anomalies\u2019 in its creation five years ago. The suspension, which Ar\u00e9valo called an attempted coup, cannot reverse the result of the election or annul the Seed Movement\u2019s 23 congressional seats. It will however be used by Ar\u00e9valo\u2019s opponents after he takes office, to question his authority and challenge his decisions.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The oppressed united<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While the establishment uses its institutional power to undermine Ar\u00e9valo, it relies on propaganda to break up his supporters. On social media, conservative politicians and business leaders argue that the economic pressure exerted by roadblocks is hurting the rural poor just as much as it is hurting the urban elite. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2018They are trying to convince us that we are shooting ourselves in the foot,\u2019 Vaclav Masek S\u00e1nchez, a Guatemalan sociologist specialising in Latin American protest movements, tells me over Zoom.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is some truth to this narrative. Protestors face the risk that their struggles \u2013 while righteous \u2013 could deepen sociocultural divisions. Last year, Bloomberg<\/em><\/a> <\/em>published an investigation into how protests against Boularte were taking their toll on the Indigenous communities around Lake Titicaca, which rely heavily on tourism. \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ar\u00e9valo\u2019s anti-corruption campaign poses a significant threat to the establishment<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2018Roadblocks have been a staple of Latin American protest movements since the early twentieth century,\u2019 Masek S\u00e1nchez explains, \u2018especially in countries with large Indigenous populations like Peru, Ecuador, and of course Guatemala. The inconvenience they cause reinforces the bourgeois notion that Indigenous people are an obstacle to development, and that they have to be tamed.\u2019 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Masek S\u00e1nchez adds that this age-old perception appears to be changing. In the past, Indigenous communities largely protested in isolation. This time, they are campaigning not just for Indigenous rights, but the rights of all Guatemalan citizens, for the sanctity of voting and democracy. The oppressed, long divided, are finally working together.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Small steps towards change<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

More importantly, they understand their fight is only just beginning. For international observers, it\u2019s tempting to believe that the election of an honest politician like Ar\u00e9valo can, if not instantaneously solve all of the country\u2019s problems, at least put it on course towards a brighter future. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

What many fail to recognise is that, in Latin America, corruption is a systemic issue \u2013 a hydra-like beast, where the removal of one head (i.e. Porras) will inevitably result in the growth of another.\u00a0Many of these \u2018heads\u2019 are part of congress, a body that, according to Krings and many other Guatemalans I spoke with, is all but guaranteed to grind Ar\u00e9valo\u2019s agenda to a halt. They will oppose his policies, and \u2013 as their Peruvian counterpart did with Castillo \u2013 may even attempt to impeach him.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If we are going to fight, we will have to fight until the end<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2018If we look at other Central American countries that elected progressive presidential candidates following extreme governments, like Honduras or Costa Rica,\u2019 says Krings, \u2018we can expect a period of constant struggle without progress.\u2019 But: \u2018If we acknowledge the reason for this pause, we vote again for a progressive proposal that can advance our democracy.\u2019 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even though Guatemalan voters stand behind Ar\u00e9valo, whose father Juan Jos\u00e9<\/a> became the country\u2019s first democratically elected leader in 1945, they should not expect a single person to transform their society. Corruption in Guatemala isn\u2019t the result of gang violence, but a quasi-legal network \u2013 a \u2018pact,\u2019 Krings says \u2013 of judges, congresspeople and companies. It will take decades to dismantle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reinvention needed<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In addition to preserving the right to vote, Guatemalans will have to reinvent the organization and operation of their political parties. \u2018There is no party in this country that grows organically,\u2019 says Masek S\u00e1nchez. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Most seasoned politicians buy votes and sell votes the way Wall Street trades in bonds, while parties like Semilla are launched like start-ups: overnight and with high hopes. As a result, Masek S\u00e1nchez continues, \u2018we don\u2019t have parties that live longer than one or two elections.\u2019 It isn\u2019t enough time to leave a lasting impact, positive or negative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For Guatemala, then, we should expect no great leap forward, but a series of small, successive steps in the same direction. It starts with Ar\u00e9valo\u2019s upcoming inauguration. Protestors meanwhile face the same challenge faced by their counterparts across Latin America: to stay determined in spite of their incremental, at times imperceptible progress \u2013 and to continue mobilising even when the hardships of daily life start weighing them down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2018The crisis is just beginning,\u2019 Sophia Arrazola, a Guatemalan artist and researcher, tells me. \u2018This isn’t just happening now. If we are going to fight, we will have to fight until the end. We need to prepare ourselves as a society to have options for the future. Not just for the next four years, but beyond. A change of system will only be possible with an active and organized citizenry in defense of human rights. What\u2019s at stake right now could lead to dictatorship.\u2019<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

While establishment figures tried to block the election of progressive president Bernardo Ar\u00e9valo, Tim Brinkhof spoke to the grassroots activists defending democracy<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":42087,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2269,145],"tags":[2804],"class_list":["post-42086","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-democracy","category-latin-america","tag-tim-brinkhof"],"yoast_head":"\nAfter months of protests, will democracy prevail in Guatemala? - Red Pepper<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.redpepper.org.uk\/global-politics\/latin-america\/after-months-of-protests-democracy-prevails-in-guatemala\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"After months of protests, will democracy prevail in Guatemala? 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